Endogenous Growth - Revision history

Monica.Pop: /* Team */

2013-05-24T12:44:17Z

‎Team

Monica.Pop: /* Main Results */

2013-05-24T12:43:11Z

‎Main Results

Monica.Pop at 12:41, 24 May 2013

2013-05-24T12:41:02Z

Monica.Pop at 20:20, 22 December 2012

2012-12-22T20:20:35Z

Monica.Pop: /* Project objectives */

2012-12-22T20:19:57Z

‎Project objectives

Monica.Pop: /* BDI journal papers */

2012-12-22T20:16:11Z

‎BDI journal papers

Monica.Pop: /* Results */

2012-12-22T20:15:21Z

‎Results

Monica.Pop: /* Results */

2012-12-22T20:10:48Z

‎Results

Monica.Pop: /* Results */

2012-12-22T20:07:40Z

‎Results

Monica.Pop: /* Results */

2012-12-22T20:02:40Z

‎Results

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 Dr. Monica Pop Silaghi, monica.pop at econ.ubbcluj.ro  - principal investigator
 Drd. Diana Alexa - until September 2012
 Dr. Cristina Jude
 Dr. Simuna Mutu - starting from November 2012
 ==Project objectives. Literature review==

@@ Line 12: / Line 12: @@
 == Main Results==
-The methodology that we apply is Granger causality for individual analyses for Romania and other emergent countries as Bulgaria, Czech, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovak and Slovenia, during 1998-2008. For the whole panel, we employ dynamic panel estimation ( GMM estimator) which controls for endogeneity and heterogeneity among individuals. Interesting results are obtained for private R&D business as an enhancing factor of economic growth. Based on these result, some policy implications are drawn, in accordance with EU 2020 Strategy of intellingent economic growth.
+The methodology that we apply is Granger causality for individual analyses for Romania and other emergent countries as Bulgaria, Czech, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovak and Slovenia, during 1998-2008. For the whole panel, we employ dynamic panel estimation ( GMM estimator) which is robust in the presence of endogenous covariates, allowing for individual fixed effects, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation.  Interesting results are obtained for private R&D business as an enhancing factor of economic growth. Based on these results, some policy implications are drawn, in accordance with EU 2020 Strategy of intellingent economic growth.
 ==Team==

@@ Line 9: / Line 9: @@
 ==Project summary==
 The macroeconomic policies if they are well implemented have a certain role in the macroeconomic stabilization of a country. By assuring a non-inflationary environment, they facilitate the firms' decisions and consumers' ones to invest and to save so as to assure an economic long-lasting economic growth. The recent academic research is oriented more and more upon the role of macroeconomic policies in the determination of the economic growth rates. In the present project, we model the endogenous growth
-in Romania including variables as human capital, foreign direct investments, government size, initial conditions for structural reforms such as the liberalization index and conditions for the development of the private sector in Romania, inflation. The key factor in the economic development of a country is given by the education level and for Romania we need such a study that takes into consideration variables that are a good proxy for this indicator. The relationship between the government size and the economic growth is largely debated in the literature and reflects the way in which it exists the law of diminishing returns to scale as long as the government increases. The analysis of the factors of economic growth taking into account the policy mix at which we assist since 1990 represents the important purpose of the present project.
+in Romania including variables as research and development, human capital, foreign direct investments, government size, initial conditions for structural reforms such as the liberalization index and conditions for the development of the private sector in Romania, inflation. The key factor in the economic development of a country is given by the education level and for Romania we need such a study that takes into consideration variables that are a good proxy for this indicator. The relationship between the government size and the economic growth is largely debated in the literature and reflects the way in which it exists the law of diminishing returns to scale as long as the government increases. The analysis of the factors of economic growth taking into account the policy mix at which we assist since 1990 represents the important purpose of the present project.
-The methodology that we apply is Granger causality for individual analyses for Romania and other emergent countries as Bulgaria, Czech, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovak and Slovenia and we use the estimator SUR i.e. seemingly unrelated regression from panel econometrics for the whole sample of the countries. We will combine the data driven methodology with the theory driven one based on the building of a dynamic general stochastic equilibrium model, including monetary policy variables.
+== Main Results==
 ==Team==
 Dr. Monica Pop Silaghi, monica.pop at econ.ubbcluj.ro  - principal investigator
+Drd. Diana Alexa - until September 2012
-Dr. Cristian Marius Litan
-−
 Dr. Cristina Jude
 Dr. Simuna Mutu - starting from November 2012
-==Project objectives==
+==Project objectives. Literature review==
 From our survey, it becomes clear that more of the actual researches are based on the methodological and theoretical elements which the endogenous growth theoreticians brought by the eighties, respectively nineties. The empirical literature follows the developing of some existing approaches in the growth theory, the originality being consisted of the modern instruments applied to test the economic hypotheses.
@@ Line 44: / Line 42: @@
 The approach that we will do here is meant to give insights about the impact that foreign direct investments (FDI) have upon economic growth by the view of labor migration. We start form the statement of Carlos Salinas de Gortari “We export goods, not people”, so we pose the problem of substitution between FDI and migration. Theoretical as we have more FDI more jobs are being created so immigration must decrease. In a reverse way, we pose the problem of identifying if the migration possibility of qualified workers increases or not the human capital investment in the origin country, attracting more FDI.
 The discussion in this direction must be detailed, as the effects are different for each type of qualification. We intend to analyze the impact of FDI upon labor migration by a panel analysis. We will identify also the main way in which FDI contribute to the economic growth (physical capital accumulation or technological transfers) and also the changes that intervene at this level in time. In particular, we want to see whether the conditioning of the FDI contribution to the economic growth by national performances in the field of the labor force quality, financial institutions and capital market, political stabilization and  foreign trade liberalization.
 ===Objective 2:  The macroeconomic policy and economic growth in Romania===
@@ Line 53: / Line 53: @@
 Fischer, Sahay and Vegh [1998a, 1998b] have used more indices of macroeconomic stability in order to explain economic growth besides those on structural reforms. Their conclusion was that countries that have achieved macroeconomic stability (reducing inflation and fiscal deficit) and have followed comprehensive structural reforms had faster growth rates.
-For this objective, we will analyze also the impact of foreign trade liberalization building a liberalization index using the methodology of De Melo et al [1996]. We will compare our study with other studies in the literature to see on what position we find Romania.
+For this objective, we analyse also the role of openess for the economic growth.
 As we will make our study in the context of the open economies, it is important to study the sectors in which Romania holds comparative advantage but also the branches in which it can create such advantages. The restraint of the analysis to the sectors identified in this way will give more relevance to our study and the causality between the factors of economic growth and GDP at the sectorial level represents an original element in the field consisted in the development of some approaches and the introduction of the methodology of testing causality. The studies in this direction (Gibbons, Katz, Lemiueux [2002], Hinloopen, van Marrewijk [2004], Vass [2005], Voinea [2002], Zaman [2004]) approach the dynamic comparative advantages by pertinent empirical analysis. We want to contribute at the literature in the field by a complex study which provides an extent view of the sectors that hold real comparative advantages or created ones and their causality or non causality with the economic growth of Romania.
@@ Line 65: / Line 65: @@
 ==Publications==
-'''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Foreign direct investments, employment creation and economic growth in CEE countries. An open issue'', in Development, Energy, Environment, Economics, pp.352-356, 2010
+===ISI WoS journal papers===
 '''Cristina Jude''',  ''FDI, Productivity and wages. New evidence from a Romanian matched sample'', accepted at Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
 Codruta Mare, '''Cristian Litan''', ''Perspectives on Euro Introduction in the Romanian Economy'', in Baltic Journal of Economics, volume 12, no.1, 2012, pp.23-38, [http://biceps.org/sites/default/files/bje/BJE%202012-2%20Mare%20Litan.pdf download]
 ===BDI journal papers===

@@ Line 37: / Line 37: @@
 The lack of such a comprehensive study for Romania and also for the whole sample of emergent countries that we consider make very difficult the elaboration of good portfolio of macroeconomic policies for a sustainable economic growth. The efforts that we find in the literature are oriented more upon some of the determinants that we propose and in many cases on one country, less Romania. The recent financial and economic crisis obliges us to take into account the impact of macroeconomic policies and to study empirically and theoretically the role of government in the macroeconomic stabilization. We describe now the objectives of our project.
-=Objective  1: The growth rate and some of the main determinants of economic growth=
+===Objective  1: The growth rate and some of the main determinants of economic growth===
 The first relationship as the first subobjective that we will study is the relationship between the physical and human capital and GPD per capita in Romania and the other countries from Central and Eastern Europe. For the physical capital, the theoretical arguments from the literature of economic growth, especially the Solow model are sufficient for the inclusion of physical capital accumulation in the model. More, we will include in the study the human capital a less studied variable for emergent countries. For these countries, such studies are missing, so it becomes essential the developing of the causal approaches for a new sample of countries. Some studies (de la Fuente, Domenech [2006]) use statistical regressions for determining the relation, we wish to imply more tools from time series analysis, which knows an evident progress nowadays by providing strong instruments of testing the sense of a relation. Jones and Schneider [2006] realize an interesting approach of the economic growth process by the interaction with human capital, doing a survey in the psychological literature of the intelligence tests. The authors reach the conclusion that a proper measure for human capital is the IQ tests. Using national data basis, the authors show that in the growth regressions which include strong control variables, the IQ coefficient is significant in 99.8% from 1330 regressions, passing easily the Bayesian robustness tests. A one percent rate increase of the IQ indicator is associated with a 0.11% increase of GDP. The authors do not intend to develop such a study for the transition countries and in our project we want to contribute to the literature in such a direction, also analyzing the bran drain effect. Bassanini and Scarpeta [2001] adopt the pooled mean estimation method for testing the role of human capital in the growth process.  Again, the sample contains only OECD countries, the author do not propose to develop similar studies for emergent countries.
@@ Line 45: / Line 45: @@
 The discussion in this direction must be detailed, as the effects are different for each type of qualification. We intend to analyze the impact of FDI upon labor migration by a panel analysis. We will identify also the main way in which FDI contribute to the economic growth (physical capital accumulation or technological transfers) and also the changes that intervene at this level in time. In particular, we want to see whether the conditioning of the FDI contribution to the economic growth by national performances in the field of the labor force quality, financial institutions and capital market, political stabilization and  foreign trade liberalization.
-=Objective 2:  The macroeconomic policy and economic growth in Romania=
+===Objective 2:  The macroeconomic policy and economic growth in Romania===
 One of the most important objectives of the economic policy is to build and to improve continuously its economic system to be able to generate growth rates which are long lasting from economic, social and ecological point of view. The achievement of this objective permits to the country inhabitants to reach standards of living comparable with those from developed countries on reasonable periods of time. Anaman [2004] analyses the factors that influence long term economic growth in Brunei using the multiple regression method based on new cointegration techniques to build the neoclassical model of economic growth. The results showed that to the increasing rate of GDP per capita contributed the total increase of exports and the relative size of the government. Mervar and Nestic [2000] showed that for Croatia the price stability, the reduction of the governmental expenses and the correct implementation of the reforms is essential for a long lasting economic growth. Campos [2000] realized a complex study regarding economic growth of the emergent countries and the included determinants besides labor, investments, human capital where the government size and the initial conditions, respectively reforms.

@@ Line 37: / Line 37: @@
 The lack of such a comprehensive study for Romania and also for the whole sample of emergent countries that we consider make very difficult the elaboration of good portfolio of macroeconomic policies for a sustainable economic growth. The efforts that we find in the literature are oriented more upon some of the determinants that we propose and in many cases on one country, less Romania. The recent financial and economic crisis obliges us to take into account the impact of macroeconomic policies and to study empirically and theoretically the role of government in the macroeconomic stabilization. We describe now the objectives of our project.
-'''Objective  1: The growth rate and some of the main determinants of economic growth
+=Objective  1: The growth rate and some of the main determinants of economic growth=
 The first relationship as the first subobjective that we will study is the relationship between the physical and human capital and GPD per capita in Romania and the other countries from Central and Eastern Europe. For the physical capital, the theoretical arguments from the literature of economic growth, especially the Solow model are sufficient for the inclusion of physical capital accumulation in the model. More, we will include in the study the human capital a less studied variable for emergent countries. For these countries, such studies are missing, so it becomes essential the developing of the causal approaches for a new sample of countries. Some studies (de la Fuente, Domenech [2006]) use statistical regressions for determining the relation, we wish to imply more tools from time series analysis, which knows an evident progress nowadays by providing strong instruments of testing the sense of a relation. Jones and Schneider [2006] realize an interesting approach of the economic growth process by the interaction with human capital, doing a survey in the psychological literature of the intelligence tests. The authors reach the conclusion that a proper measure for human capital is the IQ tests. Using national data basis, the authors show that in the growth regressions which include strong control variables, the IQ coefficient is significant in 99.8% from 1330 regressions, passing easily the Bayesian robustness tests. A one percent rate increase of the IQ indicator is associated with a 0.11% increase of GDP. The authors do not intend to develop such a study for the transition countries and in our project we want to contribute to the literature in such a direction, also analyzing the bran drain effect. Bassanini and Scarpeta [2001] adopt the pooled mean estimation method for testing the role of human capital in the growth process.  Again, the sample contains only OECD countries, the author do not propose to develop similar studies for emergent countries.
@@ Line 45: / Line 45: @@
 The discussion in this direction must be detailed, as the effects are different for each type of qualification. We intend to analyze the impact of FDI upon labor migration by a panel analysis. We will identify also the main way in which FDI contribute to the economic growth (physical capital accumulation or technological transfers) and also the changes that intervene at this level in time. In particular, we want to see whether the conditioning of the FDI contribution to the economic growth by national performances in the field of the labor force quality, financial institutions and capital market, political stabilization and  foreign trade liberalization.
-'''Objective 2:  The macroeconomic policy and economic growth in Romania
+=Objective 2:  The macroeconomic policy and economic growth in Romania=
 One of the most important objectives of the economic policy is to build and to improve continuously its economic system to be able to generate growth rates which are long lasting from economic, social and ecological point of view. The achievement of this objective permits to the country inhabitants to reach standards of living comparable with those from developed countries on reasonable periods of time. Anaman [2004] analyses the factors that influence long term economic growth in Brunei using the multiple regression method based on new cointegration techniques to build the neoclassical model of economic growth. The results showed that to the increasing rate of GDP per capita contributed the total increase of exports and the relative size of the government. Mervar and Nestic [2000] showed that for Croatia the price stability, the reduction of the governmental expenses and the correct implementation of the reforms is essential for a long lasting economic growth. Campos [2000] realized a complex study regarding economic growth of the emergent countries and the included determinants besides labor, investments, human capital where the government size and the initial conditions, respectively reforms.

@@ Line 86: / Line 86: @@
 '''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Diana Alexa''', ''A growth accounting exercise in some Central and Eastern European Countries'', in Calitatea Acces la Succes, supplement july 2012, pp. 734-746
 '''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Innovation versus income convergence in Central and Eastern Europe. Is there a correlation?'', in Analele Universitatii din Oradea, Tom XX, no. 1 issue July 2011, p. 72-79
 Ionut Trif, Marius Muresan, '''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Monetary policy, inflation rate and  real economic activity in Romania'', in Revista Virgil Madgearu,  no. 1/2011, pp. 181-198

@@ Line 63: / Line 63: @@
 The achievement of the project objectives implies a high level of interdisciplinary as it assumes the combination of economics, mathematics, econometrics in order to reach to conclusions that are empirically validated.
-==Results==
+==Publications==
-'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Cristina Jude, Diana Alexa, Cristian Litan''', ''Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in central and eastern European countries? A dynamic panel estimation'', Economic Discussion Paper 2012-4, Kingston University, 2012, [http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/~monica.pop/DP_04-2012.pdf download]
+===Theses and book chapters===
 '''Cristina Jude''',  ''FDI, Productivity and wages. New evidence from a Romanian matched sample'', accepted at Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
-'''Cristina Jude''', ''Foreign Direct Investments, technology transfer and economic growth in Central and East Europe'', PhD thesis, Babes-Bolyai University and Orleans University, September 2012, Magna Cum Laude
+Codruta Mare, '''Cristian Litan''', ''Perspectives on Euro Introduction in the Romanian Economy'', in Baltic Journal of Economics, volume 12, no.1, 2012, pp.23-38, [http://biceps.org/sites/default/files/bje/BJE%202012-2%20Mare%20Litan.pdf download]
-'''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Innovation versus income convergence in Central and Eastern Europe. Is there a correlation?'', in Analele Universitatii din Oradea, Tom XX, no. 1 issue July 2011, p. 72-79
+'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', Subrata Ghatak,  ''Why don’t they move from rural to urban? Inter-regional migration in Romania'', in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, no. 1/2011, pp. 143-158, impact factor 2011: 0.246, [http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_11/rjef1_2011p143-158.pdf download]
-Ionut Trif, Marius Muresan, '''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Monetary policy, inflation rate and  real economic activity in Romania'', in Revista Virgil Madgearu,  no. 1/2011, pp. 181-198
+===BDI journal papers===
-'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', Subrata Ghatak,  ''Why don’t they move from rural to urban? Inter-regional migration in Romania'', in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, no. 1/2011, pp. 143-158, impact factor 2011: 0.246, [http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_11/rjef1_2011p143-158.pdf download]
+'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Cristina Jude, Diana Alexa, Cristian Litan''', ''Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in central and eastern European countries? A dynamic panel estimation'', Economic Discussion Paper 2012-4, Kingston University, 2012, [http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/~monica.pop/DP_04-2012.pdf download]
-'''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Foreign direct investments, employment creation and economic growth in CEE countries. An open issue'', in Development, Energy, Environment, Economics, pp.352-356, 2010
+'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Diana Alexa''', ''A growth accounting exercise in some Central and Eastern European Countries'', in Calitatea Acces la Succes, supplement july 2012, pp. 734-746

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:10, 22 December 2012
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	==Results==		==Results==
		+
		+	'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Cristina Jude, Diana Alexa, Cristian Litan''', ''Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in central and eastern European countries? A dynamic panel estimation'', Economic Discussion Paper 2012-4, Kingston University, 2012, [http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/~monica.pop/DP_04-2012.pdf download]

	Codruta Mare, '''Cristian Litan''', ''Perspectives on Euro Introduction in the Romanian Economy'', in Baltic Journal of Economics, volume 12, no.1, 2012, pp.23-38, [http://biceps.org/sites/default/files/bje/BJE%202012-2%20Mare%20Litan.pdf download]		Codruta Mare, '''Cristian Litan''', ''Perspectives on Euro Introduction in the Romanian Economy'', in Baltic Journal of Economics, volume 12, no.1, 2012, pp.23-38, [http://biceps.org/sites/default/files/bje/BJE%202012-2%20Mare%20Litan.pdf download]

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:07, 22 December 2012
Line 64:		Line 64:

	==Results==		==Results==
		+
		+	Codruta Mare, '''Cristian Litan''', ''Perspectives on Euro Introduction in the Romanian Economy'', in Baltic Journal of Economics, volume 12, no.1, 2012, pp.23-38, [http://biceps.org/sites/default/files/bje/BJE%202012-2%20Mare%20Litan.pdf download]
		+
		+	'''Cristina Jude''', ''FDI, Productivity and wages. New evidence from a Romanian matched sample'', accepted at Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting

	'''Cristina Jude''', ''Foreign Direct Investments, technology transfer and economic growth in Central and East Europe'', PhD thesis, Babes-Bolyai University and Orleans University, September 2012, Magna Cum Laude		'''Cristina Jude''', ''Foreign Direct Investments, technology transfer and economic growth in Central and East Europe'', PhD thesis, Babes-Bolyai University and Orleans University, September 2012, Magna Cum Laude