Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi website - New pages [en]

Rezultate

2013-06-13T07:40:52Z

Monica.Pop:

Metodologia pe care o aplicam este cauzalitatea Granger pentru analize individuale pe tari precum Romania si alte tari emergente din Europa Centrala si de Est (Bulgaria, Cehia, Estonia, Lituania, Ungaria, Polonia, Slovacia, Slovenia). Pentru tot panelul de tari, metodologia utilizata este estimarea dinamica de tip panel ( estimatorul GMM) care este robust in prezenta variabilelor explicative endogene, permite efecte fixe, heteroscedatsicitate si autocorelare intre indivizi. Obtinem rezultate interesante privind rolul cheltuielilor cu cercetarea dezvoltarea din mediul privat asupra cresterii economice. Bazandu-ne pe aceste rezultate, oferim implicatii de politica macroeconomica pentru aceste tari, in consens cu strategia EU 2020 de crestere economica inteligenta. Rezultatele se mentin si cand aplicam mai multe teste de robustete ( sub-samples, sub-periods, averages).

In ceea ce priveste rolul institutiilor asupra cresterii economice, asupra unui panel de tari emergente si din alte continente ( America, Africa, Asia) alaturi de cateva tari din Europa Centrala si de Est, rezultatele indica un impact pozitiv asupra cresterii economice in special a unor variabile ce tin de aspectele monetare, financiare si fiscale ( din punct de vedere calitativ).

Evenimente

2013-06-11T19:31:53Z

Monica.Pop:

* 20-23 Iunie 2013, 12th EEFS Annual Conference Berlin, organizer University Dusiburg Essen (Monica Pop Silaghi)

* 6-8 Iunie 2013, TIMTED, Timisoara (Monica Pop Silaghi)

* 29 Mai - 1 Iunie 2013, 15th INFER Annual Conference, University of Orleans, France, [http://www.univ-orleans.fr/leo/infer/ website], s-a organizat o sesiune speciala cu tema ''Institutions FDI and Economic Growth'' (Monica Pop Silaghi)

* 28-29 Martie 2013, Finance and Banking Conference, Bucharest, Romania (Simona Mutu)

* Decembrie 2012, University of Wien, Center of Business Studies, research visit (Monica Pop Silaghi)

* 9-10 Noiembrie 2012, '''INFER International Workshop on Opportunities for Growth, Trade and Investments after the Crisis''', Universitatea Babes-Bolyai, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, [http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/infer/ website]

* 16-17 Noiembrie 2012, 6th International Conference on Applied Statistics (Monica Pop Silaghi)

* 18-20 Octombrie 2012, GEBA Iasi (Monica Pop Silaghi)

*11-13 iunie 2012, Les Journées du Développement, ATM 2012, Orleans, France (Cristina Jude)

*14-17 iunie 2012, 11th EEFS Annual Conference, Istanbul, Turkey (Monica Pop Silaghi and Diana Alexa)

*8-10 Decembrie, 2011, EIBA, Bucharest (Cristina Jude)

* 12-14 iunie, 2011, ECEE, Talinn, Estonia (Cristina Jude)

* 23 Noiembrie, 2011, prezentare la staff seminar, Kingston University, Londra, UK (Diana Alexa)

* 13-14 Septembrie, 2011, 13th INFER Annual Conference, East London University, London, UK (Monica Pop Silaghi si Diana Alexa)

* 25-30 August 2011, European Economics Association, Oslo (Monica Pop Silaghi, Scop: update research, networking)

* 9-12 iunie 2011, 10th European European Economics and Finance Society Annual Conference, Queen Mary University, London, UK (Monica Pop Silaghi)

* 22-25 Iunie, 2011, INFER workshop, Bruxelles, “Employment effects of FDI. New Evidence from CEE” (autori Cristina Jude si Monica Pop Silaghi, prezentare Monica Pop Silaghi)

* Graduate Summer Schools Barcelona 2012 (Diana Alexa) a participat la cursuri sustinute de Badi Baltagi (Panel Data Econometrics), Sala-I-Martin (Economic growth); Barcelona Iulie 2013 (Simona Mutu) participa la cursuri sustinute de Jose-Luis Peydro (Empirical Banking Applications)

Publicatii

2013-06-11T19:30:58Z

Monica.Pop:

==Articole in reviste cotate ISI==

'''Monica Pop Silaghi''', '''Diana Alexa''', '''Cristina Jude''', '''Cristian Litan''', ''Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in Central and Eastern European Countries? A Dynamic panel estimation'', Economic Modelling 36 (2014), pp.108-119

Codruta Mare, '''Cristian Litan''', ''Perspectives on Euro Introduction in the Romanian Economy'', in Baltic Journal of Economics, volume 12, no.1, 2012, pp.23-38, [http://biceps.org/assets/docs/bje/BJE%202012-2%20Mare%20Litan.pdf download]

'''Cristina Jude''', ''FDI, Productivity and wages. New evidence from a Romanian matched sample'', in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, no. 4/2012, pp. 36-55, impact factor 2011: 0.246, [http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_12/rjef4_2012p36-55.pdf download]

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', Subrata Ghatak, ''Why don’t they move from rural to urban? Inter-regional migration in Romania'', in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, no. 1/2011, pp. 143-158, impact factor 2011: 0.246, [http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_11/rjef1_2011p143-158.pdf download]

==Teze si capitole in carti==

'''Cristina Jude''', ''Foreign Direct Investments, technology transfer and economic growth in Central and East Europe'', PhD thesis, Babes-Bolyai University and Orleans University, September 2012, '''Magna Cum Laude'''

'''Cristina Jude, Monica Pop Silaghi''', ''The role of labor costs in attracting foreign direct investment in Romania'', in Population and Economy. Rural an Urban Instances, eds. Marin Balog, Ioan Bolovan, Rudolf Gräf, Ioan Lumperdean, supplement at Romanian Journal of Population Studies, vol. V, no.3, 2011

'''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Foreign direct investments, employment creation and economic growth in CEE countries. An open issue'', in Development, Energy, Environment, Economics, pp.352-356, 2010

==Articole in reviste indexate BDI==

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Simona Mutu''', ''The impact of institutions on economic growth in emergent economies'', in Revista Virgil Madgearu, no. 1/2013, pp. 135-154

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Diana Alexa''', ''A growth accounting exercise in some Central and Eastern European Countries'', in Calitatea Acces la Succes, supplement July 2012, pp. 734-746

'''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Innovation versus income convergence in Central and Eastern Europe. Is there a correlation?'', in Analele Universitatii din Oradea, Tom XX, no. 1 issue July 2011, p. 72-79

Ionut Trif, Marius Muresan, '''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Monetary policy, inflation rate and real economic activity in Romania'', in Revista Virgil Madgearu, no. 1/2011, pp. 181-198

==Working papers==

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Diana Alexa, Cristina Jude, Cristian Litan''', ''Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in central and eastern European countries? A dynamic panel estimation'', Economic Discussion Paper 2012-4, Kingston University, 2012, ( working paper) [http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/~monica.pop/DP_04-2012.pdf download]

'''Cristina Jude''', Gregory Levieuge, ''Growth effect of FDI in developing economies: the role of institutional quality'', presented at the 2013 INFER Annual Conference, Orleans, France, [http://www.univ-orleans.fr/leo/infer/POP_SILAGHI_Jude_Levieuge.pdf download]

'''Monica Pop Silaghi''', '''Simona Mutu''', ''The Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth in Emergent Economies. A dynamic Panel Approach'', prezentat la 2013 INFER Annual Conference, Orleans, France [http://www.univ-orleans.fr/leo/infer/Pop%20Silaghi.pdf download]

Ioan Trenca, Peter Balogh, '''Simona Mutu''', ''A macroprudential supervision model. Empirical evidence from the Central and Eastern Europe Banking System'', Oradea, 2013

'''Monica Pop Silaghi''', Ramona Medeșfălean, ''Some determinants of economic growth in Romania'' articol prezentat la 6th International Conference on Applied Statistics Bucharest, 2012

Diana Mureșan , '''Monica Pop Silaghi''', ''Turnover and market value in capital markets from European Union'' articol prezentat la 6th International Conference on Applied Statistics Bucharest, 2012

'''Monica Pop Silaghi, Diana Alexa'''', ''Sources of Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries. A Solow growth accounting approach'', articol prezentat la GEBA, Iasi, 2012 si la INFER Workshop, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, 2012

Echipa

2013-06-11T19:28:41Z

Monica.Pop:

Conf.dr. Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, monica.pop at econ.ubbcluj.ro - director proiect

Drd. Diana Alexa, diana.alexa at econ.ubbcluj.ro - până în Septembrie 2012

As.dr. Simona Mutu, simona.mutu at econ.ubbcluj.ro - din noiembrie 2012

As.dr. Cristina Jude, cristina.jude at econ.ubbcluj.ro

Conf.dr. Cristian Marius Litan, cristian.litan at econ.ubbcluj.ro

Obiective

2013-06-11T19:26:33Z

Monica.Pop: Created page with "Din incursiunea expusă anterior, reiese că cercetările actuale în domeniul creşterii economice endogene sunt mult bazate pe implicaţiile teoretico-metodologice pe care p..."

Din incursiunea expusă anterior, reiese că cercetările actuale în domeniul creşterii economice endogene sunt mult bazate pe implicaţiile teoretico-metodologice pe care pionierii creşterii economice le-au adus prin anii ’80, respectiv anii ‘90. În mare parte, literatura empirică actuală a urmărit şi urmăreşte dezvoltarea unor abordări existente în teoria creşterii economice, elementele de originalitate constând în instrumentele moderne utilizate în vederea testării unor ipoteze.
Experienţa mondială arată că ajungerea din urmă presupune rate înalte de economisire şi investiţii, îmbunătăţirea constantă a standardelor educaţionale şi a forţei de muncă (capitalul uman), ameliorarea continuă a competitivităţii, ponderea mare a cheltuielilor cu cercetarea-dezvoltarea şi creşterea productivităţii totale a factorilor de producţie cu alte cuvinte rata progresului tehnic, respectiv ceea ce Robert Solow considera factor rezidual (vezi si Cojanu(1997)). În ce măsură reuşeşte România dar şi celelalte ţări recent intrate in UE să asigure realizarea unora dintre aceşti factori care ar permite convergenţa – chiar dacă nu la nivelul proiecţiilor şi aşteptărilor actuale reprezintă preocuparea noastră în acest proiect.. În acest sens amintim si contribuţia autorului român D. Dăianu (2003) care analizează trăsăturile dinamice macroeconomice din Europa Centrală şi de Est relevante pentru ajungerea din urmă.
Prezentul proiect işi propune sa analizeze impactul determinanţilor creşterii economice utilizând econometria seriilor temporale individual pentru Romania si pentru un panel de tari din Europa Centrala si de Est incluzând pe lângă Romania si Bulgaria, Cehia, Ungaria, Slovacia, Slovenia, Lituania, Letonia, Polonia, Estonia. Caracterul de cercetare fundamentală va fi redat de examinarea teoretică conceptuală precum şi empirică a impactului factorilor creşterii economice asupra ratei de creştere a PIB pe termen lung, cu alte cuvinte analizarea unui model de creştere economică endogenă în situaţia României şi a celorlalte ţări emergente enumerate anterior. Îndeplinirea obiectivelor pe care ni le propunem presupune o muncă de cercetare orientată şi asupra dezvoltării unor concepte importante din teoria creşterii economice, muncă pe care intenţionăm să o realizăm la cel mai înalt nivel. Lipsa unui astfel de studiu comprehensiv pentru situaţia României precum si pe panelul de tari recent intrate in Uniunea Europeana face dificila elaborarea unui set de politici macroeconomice relevante pentru asigurarea unei creşteri economice sustenabile. Eforturile prezente din literatura de specialitate se canalizează mai mult pe analizarea doar a unora din determinanţii pe care ii avem in vedere si se adresează mai mult panelului de tari din Europa Centrala si de Est sau individual pe una din aceste tari, mai puţin pe Romania. Criza financiara recentă devenita in totalitate si criza economica de anvergura mare ne obliga sa ţinem cont de impactul politicilor macroeconomice si sa studiem atât empiric cat si teoretic rolul guvernului in asigurarea stabilitatii macroeconomice.
In cele ce urmează detaliem obiectivele prezentului proiect

==Obiectivul 1: Rata de creştere a PIB pe locuitor si unii determinanţi esenţiali ai creşterii economice==

Prima legătura pe care o vom analiza este legătura dintre capitalul fizic si uman şi PIB pe locuitor in Romania şi in alte tari din Europa Centrala şi de Est enumerate în secţiunea precedentă. Acesta este primul subobiectiv. Pentru capitalul fizic, argumentele teoretice din literatura creşterii economice, in special modelul Solow sunt suficiente pentru justificarea acumulării capitalului ca sursa de creştere economica. In plus insa dorim sa includem in studiu si capitalul uman, variabila importanta in domeniul creşterii economice endogene si foarte puţin analizata in tarile emergente fapt care ne asigură originalitate. În aceste ţări, astfel de studii lipsesc, astfel ca devine primordiala dezvoltarea abordarilor cauzale existente pentru a fi utilizate pentru un eşantion nou de tari. Mai mult, pentru Romania nu exista studii care sa coreleze nivelul educaţiei cu creşterea PIB pe locuitor. Pentru cuantificarea nivelului educaţiei vom folosi ca proxy variabile precum ponderea absolvenţilor de invatamant superior in numărul total al populaţiei, numărul absolvenţilor cu profil tehnic la 1000 de locuitori, numărul brevetelor, numărul emigranţilor cu nivel ridicat de calificare pentru surprinderea impactului negativ al fenomenului de brain-drain asupra creşterii economice din tara de origine. Unele studii (de la Fuente, Domenech [2006]) folosesc regresiile statistice pentru determinarea relaţiei, noi dorim sa implicam mai mult econometria seriilor temporale, care cunoaşte un progres evident la ora actuala prin furnizarea de instrumente puternice de testare a sensului unei relaţii. Jones şi Schneider [2006] realizează o abordare interesanta a procesului de creştere economica prin interacţiunea cu capitalul uman, efectuând o incursiune in literatura psihologica a testelor de inteligenta. Autorii ajung la concluzia ca o măsura adecvata a capitalului uman este redata de testele IQ. Folosind baze de date naţionale inedite autorii arata ca, in regresiile creşterii economice care includ variabile de control robuste, coeficientul IQ este semnificativ in 99.8% din cele 1330 regresii, trecând uşor testul Bayesian de robusteţe. O creştere procentuala de 1% a indicatorului IQ naţional mediu al unei tari este asociata cu o creştere de 0.11% a PIB. Autorii nu isi propun un astfel de studiu pentru tarile in tranziţie iar prin prezentul proiect dorim sa contribuim la literatura de specialitate prin surprinderea relaţiei dintre PIB şi capitalul uman in tarile in tranziţie şi impactul efectului de brain-drain in aceasta direcţie. Bassanini şi Scarpeta [2001] adopta metodologia estimării “pooled mean“pentru testarea rolului capitalului uman in procesul creşterii economice, insa prin eşantionul şi anume tarile OECD, autorii nu îşi propun sa efectueze comparaţii pentru tarile in curs de dezvoltare.
Cel de-al doilea sub-obiectiv ale cercetării noastre consta in investigarea legăturii dintre investiţiile străine directe şi creşterea economica.

Abordarea pe care o vom face in cadrul acestui subobiectiv va urmări sa redea impactul ISD asupra creşterii economice prin prisma migraţiei forţei de munca. După cum sugerează afirmaţia lui Carlos Salinas de Gortari “We export goods, not people”, se pune problema substituţiei dintre fluxurile de ISD şi cele migratorii. Teoretic, cu cât există mai multe investiţii străine directe (ISD), se creează mai multe locuri de muncă şi fluxurile de imigraţie ar trebui să scadă. În sens invers al cauzalităţii, se pune problema dacă posibilitatea de migraţie a lucrătorilor calificaţi creşte sau nu investiţia în capital uman în ţară de origine, atrăgând astfel mai multe ISD. Discuţia în această direcţie trebuie nuanţată, deoarece efectele nu sunt aceleaşi pentru toate categoriile de calificări. Intenţionăm să analizăm şi impactul ISD asupra migraţiei forţei de muncă prin analiză panel Se va identifica, de asemenea, calea principală prin care ISD contribuie la creşterea economică (acumularea de capital fix sau transferuri tehnologice), precum şi schimbările care intervin la acest nivel în decursul timpului. În mod particular, se va urmări condiţionarea aportului ISD la creşterea economică prin performanţele naţionale în domeniul calităţii forţei de muncă, a instituţiilor financiare şi pieţei de capital, a stabilităţii politice şi liberalizării schimburilor internaţionale.

==Obiectivul 2: Politica macroeconomica si creşterea economica in Romania ==

Unul dintre cele mai importante scopuri ale politicii economice a unei tari este de a construi si a imbunatati continuu sistemul ei economic pentru a putea genera rate de creştere economica care sunt sustenabile din punct de vedere economic, social si ecologic. Realizarea acestui scop va permite locuitorilor tarii sa ajungă la standarde de viata comparabile cu cele din tarile dezvoltate in perioade rezonabile de timp. Anaman [2004] analizează factorii care au influenţat creşterea economica pe termen lung in Brunei folosind metoda regresiei multiple bazata pe noi tehnici de cointegrare pentru a construi modelul neoclasic al creşterii economice. Rezultatele au arătat ca la rata de creştere a PIB real au contribuit creşterea totala a exporturilor si mărimea relativa a guvernului. Mervar si Nestic [2000] au arătat pentru Croatia ca stabilitatea preturilor, reducerea cheltuielilor guvernamentale si implementarea corecta a reformelor este esenţiala pentru o creştere economica sustenabila. Campos [2000] a efectuat un studiu complex privind creşterea economica a tarilor in tranziţie iar determinanţii incluşi pe lângă munca, investiţii, capital uman au fost si mărimea guvernului si condiţiile iniţiale, respectiv reformele.
Formarea unei pieţe deschise satisface cel mai bine cernitele unei creşteri economice robuste. In perioada tranziţiei spre o economie de piaţa multe reforme semnificative au fost instituite in Romania in ultimii ani: liberalizarea preturilor si regimurile ratelor de schimb, liberalizarea comerţului exterior, reformarea sistemului bancar, dezvoltarea multor instituţii ale economiei de piaţa moderna. Pentru tarile in tranziţie s-au folosit printre variabilele dependente si un index de liberalizare iar rezultatele au arătat impact ridicat asupra creşterii economice ([De Melo, Denizer si Gelb [1996], Selowsky si Martin [1997]. Fischer, Sahay si Vegh [1998a,1998b] au folosit mai mulţi indici de stabilitate macroeconomica pentru a explica creşterea economica pe lângă cei privind reformele structurale. Concluzia lor a fost ca tarile care au atins stabilitate macroeconomica (reducând inflaţia si deficitul fiscal) si au urmat reforme structurale comprehensive au avut rate mai rapide de creştere economica.
Pentru a realiza acest obiectiv vom analiza impactul liberalizării schimburilor comerciale construind un index de liberalizare urmând metodologia lui De Melo et al [1996] asupra ratei de creştere a PIB real in Romania. Ne vom compara studiul cu alte studii din literatura pentru tarile in tranziţie pentru a vedea poziţia pe care s-a situat Romania la început de tranziţie din punct de vedere al liberalizării si al valorilor iniţiale a unor indicatori macroeconomici importanţi. Lipsa de studii pentru România dă un plus de originalitate cercetării noastre.

Întrucât întreaga abordare o vom realiza în contextul unei economii deschise, va deveni importantă studierea sectoarelor în care România deţine avantaje comparative dar şi a ramurilor în care ar putea să creeze astfel de avantaje. Restrângerea analizei la sectoarele identificate va da un plus de relevanţă studiului nostru iar studierea cauzalităţii Granger între factorii creşterii economice şi PIB la nivel de sector constituie un element de originalitate concretizat în dezvoltarea unor abordări şi introducerea metodologiei de testare a cauzalităţii. Studiile în această direcţie (Gibbons, Katz, Lemiueux [2002], Hinloopen, van Marrewijk [2004], Vass [2005], Voinea [2002], Zaman [2004]) abordează avantajele comparative dinamice prin analize empirice pertinente. Dorim să contribuim la literatura de specialitate printr-un studiu complex care să releve potenţialul sectoarelor cu avantaje comparative reale sau create să cauzeze în sens Granger creşterea economică a României. Scopul este de a furniza cateva recomandări de politica macroeconomica de natura sa încurajeze anumite sectoare ale economiei romaneşti sa devină competitive pe piaţa internaţionala.
Pentru a explica creşterea economica a României in cadrul acestui obiectiv vom include ca variabila esenţiala si mărimea guvernului. In teorie, relaţia dintre cheltuielile guvernamentale si creşterea economica este ambigua. Guvernele pot stimula creşterea economica prin protejarea drepturilor de proprietate ale oamenilor, propunerea unei legislaţii cat mai coerente, asigurarea unui regim monetar stabil pentru facilitarea funcţionarii unei economie de piaţa eficiente, asigurarea de bunuri publice [Gwartney et al. 1998]. Taxele mai ridicate si împrumuturile adiţionale influenteaza rolul pozitiv al cheltuielilor guvernamentale asupra creşterii economice. Pe măsura ce creste guvernul relativ la piaţa, legea randamentelor de scară descrescătoare este din ce in ce mai pregnanta. In cazul României, analiza mărimii guvernului a fost rareori inclusa in modelele de creştere economica. Intenţionam sa acoperim astfel o lipsa din literatura de specialitate si sa comparam rezultatele obţinute cu cele ale unor autori care au lucrat similar pe alte tari.
Tot pentru realizarea acestui obiectiv ne propunem sa studiem impactul politicii monetare şi al inflaţiei asupra creşterii economice din România. Inflaţia poate influenţa creşterea economică prin schimbarea distribuţiei veniturilor astfel încât să crească rata economisirii şi a investiţiilor în economie. Ca şi o consecinţă a inflaţiei neanticipate, poate exista o redistribuire a veniturilor între salariaţi şi antreprenori. Chiar în situaţia în care inflaţia este anticipată, poate exista o schimbare în distribuirea veniturilor înspre guverne şi probabil, de la bănci spre clienţii lor, ca o consecinţă a aşa numitei taxa de inflaţiei (Bailey (1956), Cagan (1956). Eforturile de cercetare bazate pe aceste asumptii sunt foarte vii în evidenţierea relaţiei critice care există între inflaţie şi creştere economică. În mod particular, modelarea relaţiei între aceste variabile consideră relevanţa urmăririi unor efecte non-liniare şi de nivel. Găsirea unui nivel al inflaţiei de la care influenţa ei negativă asupra creşterii economice este mai mică devine mai mult decât necesară. Vom încerca să analizăm de asemenea mecanismul de transmitere a politicii monetare prin măsurarea impactului liberalizării financiare asupra creşterii economice.

Realizarea obiectivelor proiectului presupune un grad ridicat de interdisciplinaritate deoarece ea presupune îmbinarea economiei, matematicii, econometriei, în vederea ajungerii la concluzii validate empiric

Cresterea endogena

2013-06-11T19:23:24Z

Monica.Pop:

'''Proiect finantat de UEFISCDI, competitia Dezvoltarea Resurselor Umane, Tinere echipe, cod proiect TE 298'''

'''Titlul proiectului: MODELAREA CRESTERII ECONOMICE ENDOGENE SI MIXUL DE POLITICA MACROECONOMICA IN ROMANIA SI ALTE TARI EMERGENTE'''

'''Director proiect: Conf.dr. Monica Pop Silaghi'''

'''Durata proiectului: August 2010 - Octombrie 2013'''

==Rezumatul proiectului==
Politicile macroeconomice daca sunt corect conduse au in mod cert un rol de stabilizare macroeconomica. Prin asigurarea unui mediu neinflationist ele faciliteaza deciziile firmelor si consumatorilor de a investi si economisi astfel incat sa se asigura o crestere economica sustenabila pe termen lung. Cercetarile academice recente se orienteaza tot mai mult pe rolul politicilor macroeconomice in determinarea ratelor de crestere economica. In proiectul de fata modelam cresterea endogena in cazul Romaniei incluzand variabile precum capitalul uman, investitiile straine directe, marimea guvernului, conditii initiale de reforma (indicele de liberalizare a schimburilor economice externe, conditii pentru dezvoltarea sectorului privat), inflatia. Factorul cheie al dezvoltarii economice a unei tari este dat de nivelul educatiei iar pentru Romania este nevoie de un studiu care sa ia in considerare si variabile care sa fie un bun proxy pentru acest indicator. Relatia dintre marimea guvernului si cresterea economica este larg dezbatuta in literatura si se refera la modul in care se manifesta legea randamentelor descrescatoare de scara pe masura ce creste marimea guvernului relativ la piata. Analizarea acestor factori ai cresterii economice tinand cont de mixul de politica macroeconomica din Romania la care asistam din anii 1990 incoace reprezinta scopul principal al proiectului. Vom imbina metodologia de tip " data driven" respectiv cauzalitatea in sens Granger pentru analize individuale pe tari (Romania si celelalte tari emergente din Europa Centrala si de Est (Bulgaria, Cehia, Estonia, Lituania, Letonia, Ungaria, Polonia, Slovenia, Slovacia) si estimatorul de tip SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) din econometria panelului pentru intreg grupul de tari emergente si metodologia de tip "theory driven" pentru construirea unui model stochastic de echilibru general dinamic prin includerea de variabile ce tin de politica monetara.

Objectives

2013-06-11T17:57:17Z

Monica.Pop: Created page with "From our survey, it becomes clear that more of the actual researches are based on the methodological and theoretical elements which the endogenous growth theoreticians brought..."

From our survey, it becomes clear that more of the actual researches are based on the methodological and theoretical elements which the endogenous growth theoreticians brought by the eighties, respectively nineties. The empirical literature follows the developing of some existing approaches in the growth theory, the originality being consisted of the modern instruments applied to test the economic hypotheses.

The world experience show that the catching-up process impose high rates of economies and investments, the continuous improvement of the competitiveness, the high percentage of research-development and the total factors productivity, in other words the technical progress rate, which was named by Solow a residual factor. In what extent succeed Romania to accomplish these factors which permit convergence - even if not at the level of projections and actual expectations – represents our task in this project. In this sense, we mention the contribution of the Romanian author Daniel Dăianu, „Cât de posibilă este convergenţa economică”, Oeconomica, 2003, who analyzes the dynamic macroeconomic properties of Central and East Europe, relevant for catching up western societies.

The present project is meant to analyze the impact of the determinants of economic growth using the times series econometrics for Romania and for a sample of emergent countries i.e. Bulgaria, Czech, Hungary, Slovenia, Lithuania, Slovak, Latvia, Poland, Estonia.

The fundamental research character is being given by the theoretical and empirical conceptual examination of the growth’s factors impact on the long term growth rate of GDP; we mean the analysis of an endogenous growth model in the case of Romania and its neighbors. The accomplishment of our purposes assumes a research work focused over the development of some important concepts from the economic growth theory, work that we intend to cover at the highest possible level.

The lack of such a comprehensive study for Romania and also for the whole sample of emergent countries that we consider make very difficult the elaboration of good portfolio of macroeconomic policies for a sustainable economic growth. The efforts that we find in the literature are oriented more upon some of the determinants that we propose and in many cases on one country, less Romania. The recent financial and economic crisis obliges us to take into account the impact of macroeconomic policies and to study empirically and theoretically the role of government in the macroeconomic stabilization. We describe now the objectives of our project.

===Objective 1: The growth rate and some of the main determinants of economic growth===

The first relationship as the first subobjective that we will study is the relationship between the physical and human capital and GPD per capita in Romania and the other countries from Central and Eastern Europe. For the physical capital, the theoretical arguments from the literature of economic growth, especially the Solow model are sufficient for the inclusion of physical capital accumulation in the model. More, we will include in the study the human capital a less studied variable for emergent countries. For these countries, such studies are missing, so it becomes essential the developing of the causal approaches for a new sample of countries. Some studies (de la Fuente, Domenech [2006]) use statistical regressions for determining the relation, we wish to imply more tools from time series analysis, which knows an evident progress nowadays by providing strong instruments of testing the sense of a relation. Jones and Schneider [2006] realize an interesting approach of the economic growth process by the interaction with human capital, doing a survey in the psychological literature of the intelligence tests. The authors reach the conclusion that a proper measure for human capital is the IQ tests. Using national data basis, the authors show that in the growth regressions which include strong control variables, the IQ coefficient is significant in 99.8% from 1330 regressions, passing easily the Bayesian robustness tests. A one percent rate increase of the IQ indicator is associated with a 0.11% increase of GDP. The authors do not intend to develop such a study for the transition countries and in our project we want to contribute to the literature in such a direction, also analyzing the bran drain effect. Bassanini and Scarpeta [2001] adopt the pooled mean estimation method for testing the role of human capital in the growth process. Again, the sample contains only OECD countries, the author do not propose to develop similar studies for emergent countries.

The second subobjective of our research is to investigate whether there is a relationship between foreign direct investments and economic growth.
The approach that we will do here is meant to give insights about the impact that foreign direct investments (FDI) have upon economic growth by the view of labor migration. We start form the statement of Carlos Salinas de Gortari “We export goods, not people”, so we pose the problem of substitution between FDI and migration. Theoretical as we have more FDI more jobs are being created so immigration must decrease. In a reverse way, we pose the problem of identifying if the migration possibility of qualified workers increases or not the human capital investment in the origin country, attracting more FDI.
The discussion in this direction must be detailed, as the effects are different for each type of qualification. We intend to analyze the impact of FDI upon labor migration by a panel analysis. We will identify also the main way in which FDI contribute to the economic growth (physical capital accumulation or technological transfers) and also the changes that intervene at this level in time. In particular, we want to see whether the conditioning of the FDI contribution to the economic growth by national performances in the field of the labor force quality, financial institutions and capital market, political stabilization and foreign trade liberalization.

As a third subobjective, we will analyse the interregional migration inside Romania as it has a great impact on reducing the disparities between regions and thus, achieving a sustainable economic growth.

===Objective 2: The macroeconomic policy and economic growth in Romania===

One of the most important objectives of the economic policy is to build and to improve continuously its economic system to be able to generate growth rates which are long lasting from economic, social and ecological point of view. The achievement of this objective permits to the country inhabitants to reach standards of living comparable with those from developed countries on reasonable periods of time. Anaman [2004] analyses the factors that influence long term economic growth in Brunei using the multiple regression method based on new cointegration techniques to build the neoclassical model of economic growth. The results showed that to the increasing rate of GDP per capita contributed the total increase of exports and the relative size of the government. Mervar and Nestic [2000] showed that for Croatia the price stability, the reduction of the governmental expenses and the correct implementation of the reforms is essential for a long lasting economic growth. Campos [2000] realized a complex study regarding economic growth of the emergent countries and the included determinants besides labor, investments, human capital where the government size and the initial conditions, respectively reforms.

The creation of an open market satisfies better the requirements of a strong economic growth. In transition period, many important reforms were implemented: price liberalization, exchange rates regimes, the liberalization of the foreign trade, the reformation of the banking system, the development of many institutions of the modern market economy. For the emergent countries, there were used among the dependent variables also a liberalization index and the results showed a high impact upon economic growth ([De Melo, Denizer and Gelb [1996], Selowsky and Martin [1997].

Fischer, Sahay and Vegh [1998a, 1998b] have used more indices of macroeconomic stability in order to explain economic growth besides those on structural reforms. Their conclusion was that countries that have achieved macroeconomic stability (reducing inflation and fiscal deficit) and have followed comprehensive structural reforms had faster growth rates.

For this objective, we analyse also the role of openess for the economic growth.

As we will make our study in the context of the open economies, it is important to study the sectors in which Romania holds comparative advantage but also the branches in which it can create such advantages. The restraint of the analysis to the sectors identified in this way will give more relevance to our study and the causality between the factors of economic growth and GDP at the sectorial level represents an original element in the field consisted in the development of some approaches and the introduction of the methodology of testing causality. The studies in this direction (Gibbons, Katz, Lemiueux [2002], Hinloopen, van Marrewijk [2004], Vass [2005], Voinea [2002], Zaman [2004]) approach the dynamic comparative advantages by pertinent empirical analysis. We want to contribute at the literature in the field by a complex study which provides an extent view of the sectors that hold real comparative advantages or created ones and their causality or non causality with the economic growth of Romania.

For explaining economic growth in Romania we will include also the government size. In theory, the relation between government expenses and economic growth is very ambiguous. The governments can stimulate economic growth by protecting the property rights, by proposing a more coherent legislation, by assuring a stable monetary system by facilitating a healthy market economy, public goods [Gwartney et al. 1998]. The increased taxes and the additional borrowings influence the positive role of the governmental expenses upon the economic growth. As the government increases, the diminishing returns to scale law becomes more and more obvious. In the Romanian case the analysis of the government size was very seldom included so we intend to cover a gap from the literature.

For realizing this objective, we also intend to study the impact of the monetary policy impact and of inflation on the economic growth in Romania. Inflation can influence the economic growth by shifts in income so as to increase saving and investment rate in the economy. As a consequence of unanticipated inflation, it can exist a shift in distribution of income towards governments and most likely, from banks towards their clients, as a result (Bailey (1956), Cagan (1956). The research efforts are very alive in showing the critical relation which exists between inflation and economic growth. In particular, modeling the relationship between these variables takes into account the relevance of some nonlinear and threshold effects. Finding a level of inflation from which the negative influence upon economic growth is lower becomes essential. We will try to analyze also the mechanism of transmission of the monetary policy by measuring the impact of financial liberalization on the economic growth.

The achievement of the project objectives implies a high level of interdisciplinary as it assumes the combination of economics, mathematics, econometrics in order to reach to conclusions that are empirically validated.

Publications

2013-06-11T17:38:35Z

Monica.Pop:

===ISI WoS journal papers===

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi'''; '''Diana Alexa'''; '''Cristina Jude''', '''Cristian Litan''', "Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in Central and Eastern European countries? A dynamic panel estimation", Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 36, January 2014, pages 108-119, ISSN 0264-9993, IF:0.557, [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313003519]

Codruta Mare, '''Cristian Litan''', ''Perspectives on Euro Introduction in the Romanian Economy'', in Baltic Journal of Economics, volume 12, no.1, 2012, pp.23-38, [http://biceps.org/assets/docs/bje/BJE%202012-2%20Mare%20Litan.pdf download]

'''Cristina Jude''', ''FDI, Productivity and wages. New evidence from a Romanian matched sample'', in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, no. 4/2012, pp. 36-55, impact factor 2011: 0.246, [http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_12/rjef4_2012p36-55.pdf download]

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', Subrata Ghatak, ''Why don’t they move from rural to urban? Inter-regional migration in Romania'', in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, no. 1/2011, pp. 143-158, impact factor 2011: 0.246, [http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_11/rjef1_2011p143-158.pdf download]

===Theses and book chapters===

'''Cristina Jude''', ''Foreign Direct Investments, technology transfer and economic growth in Central and East Europe'', PhD thesis, Babes-Bolyai University and Orleans University, September 2012, '''Magna Cum Laude'''

'''Cristina Jude, Monica Pop Silaghi''', ''The role of labor costs in attracting foreign direct investment in Romania'', in Population and Economy. Rural an Urban Instances, eds. Marin Balog, Ioan Bolovan, Rudolf Gräf, Ioan Lumperdean, supplement at Romanian Journal of Population Studies, vol. V, no.3, 2011

'''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Foreign direct investments, employment creation and economic growth in CEE countries. An open issue'', in Development, Energy, Environment, Economics, pp.352-356, 2010

===BDI journal papers===

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Simona Mutu''', ''The impact of institutions on economic growth in emergent economies'', in Revista Virgil Madgearu, no. 1/2013, pp. 135-154

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Diana Alexa''', ''A growth accounting exercise in some Central and Eastern European Countries'', in Calitatea Acces la Succes, supplement July 2012, pp. 734-746

'''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Innovation versus income convergence in Central and Eastern Europe. Is there a correlation?'', in Analele Universitatii din Oradea, Tom XX, no. 1 issue July 2011, p. 72-79

Ionut Trif, Marius Muresan, '''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Monetary policy, inflation rate and real economic activity in Romania'', in Revista Virgil Madgearu, no. 1/2011, pp. 181-198

===Working papers===

'''Cristina Jude''', Gregory Levieuge, ''Growth effect of FDI in developing economies: the role of institutional quality'', presented at the 2013 INFER Annual Conference, Orleans, France, [http://www.univ-orleans.fr/leo/infer/POP_SILAGHI_Jude_Levieuge.pdf download]

'''Monica Pop Silaghi''', '''Simona Mutu''', ''The Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth in Emergent Economies. A dynamic Panel Approach'', presented at the 2013 INFER Annual Conference, Orleans, France and at TIMTED, 2013[http://www.univ-orleans.fr/leo/infer/Pop%20Silaghi.pdf download]

Ioan Trenca, Peter Balogh, '''Simona Mutu''', ''A macroprudential supervision model. Empirical evidence from the Central and Eastern Europe Banking System'', Oradea, 2013

'''Monica Pop Silaghi''', Ramona Medeșfălean, ''Some determinants of economic growth in Romania'' paper presented at the 6th International Conference on Applied Statistics Bucharest, 2012

Diana Mureșan , '''Monica Pop Silaghi''', ''Turnover and market value in capital markets from European Union'' paper presented at the 6th International Conference on Applied Statistics Bucharest, 2012

'''Monica Pop Silaghi, Diana Alexa''', ''Sources of Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries. A Solow growth accounting approach'', paper presented at GEBA, Iasi, 2012 and at INFER Workshop, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, 2012

Team

2013-06-11T17:36:40Z

Monica.Pop:

Conf. Dr. Monica Pop Silaghi, monica.pop at econ.ubbcluj.ro - principal investigator

Dr. Simuna Mutu, simona.mutu at econ.ubbcluj.ro - starting from November 2012

Drd. Diana Alexa, diana.alexa at econ.ubbcluj.ro - until September 2012

As. Dr. Cristina Jude, cristina.jude at econ.ubbcluj.ro

Conf. Dr. Cristian Marius Litan, cristian.litan@econ.ubbcluj.ro

Project Results

2013-06-11T17:34:47Z

Monica.Pop:

The methodology that we apply is Granger causality for individual analyses for Romania and other emergent countries as Bulgaria, Czech, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovak and Slovenia, during 1998-2008. For the whole panel, we employ dynamic panel estimation ( GMM estimator) which is robust in the presence of endogenous covariates, allowing for individual fixed effects, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Interesting results are obtained for private R&D business as an enhancing factor of economic growth. Based on these results, some policy implications are drawn, in accordance with EU 2020 Strategy of intelligent economic growth. When various robustness checks are applied ( sub-samples, sub-periods, averages), our results remain mainly the same.

In what concerns the role of institutions on economic growth, in a panel of emerging economies from other continents too ( America, Africa, Asia) besides some countries from CEE, results indicate a positive impact on economic growth, especially when variables that present monetary, financial and fiscal aspects ( from a qualitative point of view) are included.

Endogeneous Growth

2013-06-11T17:34:04Z

Monica.Pop: Created page with "'''financed by UEFISCDI, Human Resources Young Research Teams project TE 298 ''' Project title: MODELLING ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND THE MACROECONOMIC POLICY MIX IN ROMANIA AND OT..."

Endogenous Growth

2012-12-22T19:34:50Z

Monica.Pop: /* Team */

'''financed by UEFISCDI, Human Resources Young Research Teams project TE 298

''' Project title: MODELLING ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND THE MACROECONOMIC POLICY MIX IN ROMANIA AND OTHER EMERGENT COUNTRIES FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

''' Principal investigator: Dr. Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi

''' Project duration: August 2010 - July 2013

==Project summary==
The macroeconomic policies if they are well implemented have a certain role in the macroeconomic stabilization of a country. By assuring a non-inflationary environment, they facilitate the firms' decisions and consumers' ones to invest and to save so as to assure an economic long-lasting economic growth. The recent academic research is oriented more and more upon the role of macroeconomic policies in the determination of the economic growth rates. In the present project, we model the endogenous growth
in Romania including variables as research and development, human capital, foreign direct investments, government size, initial conditions for structural reforms such as the liberalization index and conditions for the development of the private sector in Romania, inflation. The key factor in the economic development of a country is given by the education level and for Romania we need such a study that takes into consideration variables that are a good proxy for this indicator. The relationship between the government size and the economic growth is largely debated in the literature and reflects the way in which it exists the law of diminishing returns to scale as long as the government increases. The analysis of the factors of economic growth taking into account the policy mix at which we assist since 1990 represents the important purpose of the present project.

== Main Results==
The methodology that we apply is Granger causality for individual analyses for Romania and other emergent countries as Bulgaria, Czech, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovak and Slovenia, during 1998-2008. For the whole panel, we employ dynamic panel estimation ( GMM estimator) which is robust in the presence of endogenous covariates, allowing for individual fixed effects, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Interesting results are obtained for private R&D business as an enhancing factor of economic growth. Based on these results, some policy implications are drawn, in accordance with EU 2020 Strategy of intellingent economic growth.

==Team==

Dr. Monica Pop Silaghi, monica.pop at econ.ubbcluj.ro - principal investigator

Drd. Diana Alexa - until September 2012

Dr. Cristina Jude

Dr. Simuna Mutu - starting from November 2012

Dr. Cristian Marius Litan

==Project objectives. Literature review==

From our survey, it becomes clear that more of the actual researches are based on the methodological and theoretical elements which the endogenous growth theoreticians brought by the eighties, respectively nineties. The empirical literature follows the developing of some existing approaches in the growth theory, the originality being consisted of the modern instruments applied to test the economic hypotheses.

The world experience show that the catching-up process impose high rates of economies and investments, the continuous improvement of the competitiveness, the high percentage of research-development and the total factors productivity, in other words the technical progress rate, which was named by Solow a residual factor. In what extent succeed Romania to accomplish these factors which permit convergence - even if not at the level of projections and actual expectations – represents our task in this project. In this sense, we mention the contribution of the Romanian author Daniel Dăianu, „Cât de posibilă este convergenţa economică”, Oeconomica, 2003, who analyzes the dynamic macroeconomic properties of Central and East Europe, relevant for catching up western societies.

The present project is meant to analyze the impact of the determinants of economic growth using the times series econometrics for Romania and for a sample of emergent countries i.e. Bulgaria, Czech, Hungary, Slovenia, Lithuania, Slovak, Latvia, Poland, Estonia.

The fundamental research character is being given by the theoretical and empirical conceptual examination of the growth’s factors impact on the long term growth rate of GDP; we mean the analysis of an endogenous growth model in the case of Romania and its neighbors. The accomplishment of our purposes assumes a research work focused over the development of some important concepts from the economic growth theory, work that we intend to cover at the highest possible level.

The lack of such a comprehensive study for Romania and also for the whole sample of emergent countries that we consider make very difficult the elaboration of good portfolio of macroeconomic policies for a sustainable economic growth. The efforts that we find in the literature are oriented more upon some of the determinants that we propose and in many cases on one country, less Romania. The recent financial and economic crisis obliges us to take into account the impact of macroeconomic policies and to study empirically and theoretically the role of government in the macroeconomic stabilization. We describe now the objectives of our project.

===Objective 1: The growth rate and some of the main determinants of economic growth===

The first relationship as the first subobjective that we will study is the relationship between the physical and human capital and GPD per capita in Romania and the other countries from Central and Eastern Europe. For the physical capital, the theoretical arguments from the literature of economic growth, especially the Solow model are sufficient for the inclusion of physical capital accumulation in the model. More, we will include in the study the human capital a less studied variable for emergent countries. For these countries, such studies are missing, so it becomes essential the developing of the causal approaches for a new sample of countries. Some studies (de la Fuente, Domenech [2006]) use statistical regressions for determining the relation, we wish to imply more tools from time series analysis, which knows an evident progress nowadays by providing strong instruments of testing the sense of a relation. Jones and Schneider [2006] realize an interesting approach of the economic growth process by the interaction with human capital, doing a survey in the psychological literature of the intelligence tests. The authors reach the conclusion that a proper measure for human capital is the IQ tests. Using national data basis, the authors show that in the growth regressions which include strong control variables, the IQ coefficient is significant in 99.8% from 1330 regressions, passing easily the Bayesian robustness tests. A one percent rate increase of the IQ indicator is associated with a 0.11% increase of GDP. The authors do not intend to develop such a study for the transition countries and in our project we want to contribute to the literature in such a direction, also analyzing the bran drain effect. Bassanini and Scarpeta [2001] adopt the pooled mean estimation method for testing the role of human capital in the growth process. Again, the sample contains only OECD countries, the author do not propose to develop similar studies for emergent countries.

The second subobjective of our research is to investigate whether there is a relationship between foreign direct investments and economic growth.
The approach that we will do here is meant to give insights about the impact that foreign direct investments (FDI) have upon economic growth by the view of labor migration. We start form the statement of Carlos Salinas de Gortari “We export goods, not people”, so we pose the problem of substitution between FDI and migration. Theoretical as we have more FDI more jobs are being created so immigration must decrease. In a reverse way, we pose the problem of identifying if the migration possibility of qualified workers increases or not the human capital investment in the origin country, attracting more FDI.
The discussion in this direction must be detailed, as the effects are different for each type of qualification. We intend to analyze the impact of FDI upon labor migration by a panel analysis. We will identify also the main way in which FDI contribute to the economic growth (physical capital accumulation or technological transfers) and also the changes that intervene at this level in time. In particular, we want to see whether the conditioning of the FDI contribution to the economic growth by national performances in the field of the labor force quality, financial institutions and capital market, political stabilization and foreign trade liberalization.

As a third subobjective, we will analyse the interregional migration inside Romania as it has a great impact on reducing the disparities between regions and thus, achieving a sustainable economic growth.

===Objective 2: The macroeconomic policy and economic growth in Romania===

One of the most important objectives of the economic policy is to build and to improve continuously its economic system to be able to generate growth rates which are long lasting from economic, social and ecological point of view. The achievement of this objective permits to the country inhabitants to reach standards of living comparable with those from developed countries on reasonable periods of time. Anaman [2004] analyses the factors that influence long term economic growth in Brunei using the multiple regression method based on new cointegration techniques to build the neoclassical model of economic growth. The results showed that to the increasing rate of GDP per capita contributed the total increase of exports and the relative size of the government. Mervar and Nestic [2000] showed that for Croatia the price stability, the reduction of the governmental expenses and the correct implementation of the reforms is essential for a long lasting economic growth. Campos [2000] realized a complex study regarding economic growth of the emergent countries and the included determinants besides labor, investments, human capital where the government size and the initial conditions, respectively reforms.

The creation of an open market satisfies better the requirements of a strong economic growth. In transition period, many important reforms were implemented: price liberalization, exchange rates regimes, the liberalization of the foreign trade, the reformation of the banking system, the development of many institutions of the modern market economy. For the emergent countries, there were used among the dependent variables also a liberalization index and the results showed a high impact upon economic growth ([De Melo, Denizer and Gelb [1996], Selowsky and Martin [1997].

Fischer, Sahay and Vegh [1998a, 1998b] have used more indices of macroeconomic stability in order to explain economic growth besides those on structural reforms. Their conclusion was that countries that have achieved macroeconomic stability (reducing inflation and fiscal deficit) and have followed comprehensive structural reforms had faster growth rates.

For this objective, we analyse also the role of openess for the economic growth.

As we will make our study in the context of the open economies, it is important to study the sectors in which Romania holds comparative advantage but also the branches in which it can create such advantages. The restraint of the analysis to the sectors identified in this way will give more relevance to our study and the causality between the factors of economic growth and GDP at the sectorial level represents an original element in the field consisted in the development of some approaches and the introduction of the methodology of testing causality. The studies in this direction (Gibbons, Katz, Lemiueux [2002], Hinloopen, van Marrewijk [2004], Vass [2005], Voinea [2002], Zaman [2004]) approach the dynamic comparative advantages by pertinent empirical analysis. We want to contribute at the literature in the field by a complex study which provides an extent view of the sectors that hold real comparative advantages or created ones and their causality or non causality with the economic growth of Romania.

For explaining economic growth in Romania we will include also the government size. In theory, the relation between government expenses and economic growth is very ambiguous. The governments can stimulate economic growth by protecting the property rights, by proposing a more coherent legislation, by assuring a stable monetary system by facilitating a healthy market economy, public goods [Gwartney et al. 1998]. The increased taxes and the additional borrowings influence the positive role of the governmental expenses upon the economic growth. As the government increases, the diminishing returns to scale law becomes more and more obvious. In the Romanian case the analysis of the government size was very seldom included so we intend to cover a gap from the literature.

For realizing this objective, we also intend to study the impact of the monetary policy impact and of inflation on the economic growth in Romania. Inflation can influence the economic growth by shifts in income so as to increase saving and investment rate in the economy. As a consequence of unanticipated inflation, it can exist a shift in distribution of income towards governments and most likely, from banks towards their clients, as a result (Bailey (1956), Cagan (1956). The research efforts are very alive in showing the critical relation which exists between inflation and economic growth. In particular, modeling the relationship between these variables takes into account the relevance of some nonlinear and threshold effects. Finding a level of inflation from which the negative influence upon economic growth is lower becomes essential. We will try to analyze also the mechanism of transmission of the monetary policy by measuring the impact of financial liberalization on the economic growth.

The achievement of the project objectives implies a high level of interdisciplinary as it assumes the combination of economics, mathematics, econometrics in order to reach to conclusions that are empirically validated.

==Publications==

===ISI WoS journal papers===

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', Subrata Ghatak, ''Why don’t they move from rural to urban? Inter-regional migration in Romania'', in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, no. 1/2011, pp. 143-158, impact factor 2011: 0.246, [http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_11/rjef1_2011p143-158.pdf download]

'''Cristina Jude''', ''FDI, Productivity and wages. New evidence from a Romanian matched sample'', accepted at Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting

Codruta Mare, '''Cristian Litan''', ''Perspectives on Euro Introduction in the Romanian Economy'', in Baltic Journal of Economics, volume 12, no.1, 2012, pp.23-38, [http://biceps.org/sites/default/files/bje/BJE%202012-2%20Mare%20Litan.pdf download]

===Theses and book chapters===

'''Cristina Jude''', ''Foreign Direct Investments, technology transfer and economic growth in Central and East Europe'', PhD thesis, Babes-Bolyai University and Orleans University, September 2012, Magna Cum Laude

'''Cristina Jude, Monica Pop Silaghi''', ''The role of labor costs in attracting foreign direct investment in Romania'', in Population and Economy. Rural an Urban Instances, eds. Marin Balog, Ioan Bolovan, Rudolf Gräf, Ioan Lumperdean, supplement at Romanian Journal of Population Studies, vol. V, no.3, 2011

'''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Foreign direct investments, employment creation and economic growth in CEE countries. An open issue'', in Development, Energy, Environment, Economics, pp.352-356, 2010

===BDI journal papers===

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Cristina Jude, Diana Alexa, Cristian Litan''', ''Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in central and eastern European countries? A dynamic panel estimation'', Economic Discussion Paper 2012-4, Kingston University, 2012, [http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/~monica.pop/DP_04-2012.pdf download]

'''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi, Diana Alexa''', ''A growth accounting exercise in some Central and Eastern European Countries'', in Calitatea Acces la Succes, supplement july 2012, pp. 734-746

'''Cristina Jude, Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Innovation versus income convergence in Central and Eastern Europe. Is there a correlation?'', in Analele Universitatii din Oradea, Tom XX, no. 1 issue July 2011, p. 72-79

Ionut Trif, Marius Muresan, '''Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi''', ''Monetary policy, inflation rate and real economic activity in Romania'', in Revista Virgil Madgearu, no. 1/2011, pp. 181-198

Main Page

2012-11-23T10:50:50Z

Monica.Pop:

'''financed by UEFISCDI, Human Resources Young Research Teams project TE 298'''

'''Project title: MODELLING ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND THE MACROECONOMIC POLICY MIX IN ROMANIA AND OTHER EMERGENT COUNTRIES FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE'''

'''Principal investigator: Dr. Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi'''

'''Project duration: August 2010 - July 2013'''

==Project summary==
The macroeconomic policies if they are well implemented have a certain role in the macroeconomic stabilization of a country. By assuring a non-inflationary environment, they facilitate the firms' decisions and consumers' ones to invest and to save so as to assure an economic long-lasting economic growth. The recent academic research is oriented more and more upon the role of macroeconomic policies in the determination of the economic growth rates. In the present project, we model the endogenous growth
in Romania including variables as research and development, human capital, foreign direct investments, government size, initial conditions for structural reforms such as the liberalization index and conditions for the development of the private sector in Romania, inflation. The key factor in the economic development of a country is given by the education level and for Romania we need such a study that takes into consideration variables that are a good proxy for this indicator. The relationship between the government size and the economic growth is largely debated in the literature and reflects the way in which it exists the law of diminishing returns to scale as long as the government increases. The analysis of the factors of economic growth taking into account the policy mix at which we assist since 1990 represents the important purpose of the present project.